Big Ideas 2021
Until recently, humans programmed all software. Deep learning, a
form of artificial intelligence (AI), uses data to write software. By
“automating” the creation of software, deep learning could
turbocharge every industry.
The Re-Invention of the Data Center
In the data center, we believe accelerators, dominated by GPUs, will
become the dominant processors for new workloads, growing 21% at
an annual rate to $41 billion by 2030.
Today, virtual worlds are independent from each other, but in the
future they could become interoperable, culminating in what
futurists have deemed ‘The Metaverse.’
Today, digital wallets are beginning to penetrate the full traditional
financial services stack, including brokerage and lending. Digital
wallets could serve as lead generation platforms for commercial
activity beyond financial products.
Based on search volumes compared to 2017, bitcoin’s price increase
seems to be driven less by hype. With bitcoin appearing to gain
more trust, some companies are considering it as cash on their
Electric Vehicles (EVs)
We believe the biggest downside risk to our forecast is whether
traditional automakers can transition successfully to electric and
Automation has the potential to shift unpaid labor to paid labor.
For example, as food services automate, they will transform food
prep, cleanup, and grocery shopping into market activities including
We believe autonomous ride-hailing will reduce the cost of mobility
to one tenth the average cost of a taxi today, spurring widespread
Lower battery costs and autonomous technology should
power aerial drones.
Thanks to advancements in deep learning, mobile connectivity,
sensors, 3D printing, and robotics, costs that have been
ballooning for decades are beginning to decline. As a result,
the number of satellite launches and rocket landings is
3D printing collapses the time between design and production,
shifts power to designers, and reduces supply chain
complexity, at a fraction of the cost of traditional manufacturing.
Next-generation DNA sequencing (NGS) is the driving force behind
the genomic revolution. Though historically dominated by shortread sequencing, we believe long-read sequencing will gain share at a rapid rate.
According to ARK’s research, the convergence of
innovative technologies has pushed the cost of multi-cancer
screening down by 20-fold from $30,000 in 2015 to $1,500 today
and it should drop another 80%+ to $250 in 2025.
Cell and Gene Therapy: Generation 2
The second generation of cell and gene therapies should shift from:
• liquid to solid tumors
• autologous to allogeneic cell therapy1
• ex vivo to in vivo gene editing